Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Cherry picking the very best cherries
Is everyone as burned out by the volatility of the polls as I am? This just came in from one of my wife's friends. Since it produces very happy numbers for our side, I'll pass it on.
If the election were held today, then based on recent state polling, John Kerry would have a 98% probability of winning at least 270 electoral votes. He could expect 318 electoral votes and 51.23% of the popular vote. Based on the average of 18 national polls, there is a 95% probability that he would win a popular vote majority. These projections assume Kerry will win 60% of the undecided voters. Historically, undecided voters split 2-1 for the challenger.

The author of the site, who calls his or herself TruthIsAll, provides an explanation of the methodology he or she used to reach this conclusion as well as lots of interesting data, charts, and links for polling geeks.

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