Scott
Walker dropped out of the Republican primary race today. Last week,
Rick Perry dropped out. Most of my liberal friends on Facebook and
Twitter cackled gleefully and made fist-pumping “oh, yeah” noises
over each of those. They enjoyed the schadenfreude of watching two
people they disliked being humiliated and slinking home with their
tails between their legs. They shouldn't have enjoyed it. Walker and
Perry dropping out is bad for us.
The
more people there are in the primary, and the longer they last, the
better it is for us. The worst thing that could happen for us is for
all of them to drop out (except, presumably for one. No one running
as a Republican would be very good for us). There are two simple
points involved. One is financial/economical and the other is
sociological.
The
money issue is the easiest to explain. Lots of candidates eat up a
lot of money. Money spent running against other Republicans in the
primaries is money not available to spend running against the
Democratic candidate in the general election. I want the big donors
to spend it all in the primaries. Walker in particular was positioned
to waste a lot of money. He was the Koch brothers' anointed. They
have publicly promised to spend almost a billion dollars this cycle
to create a government to their liking. The longer he looked viable,
the more of that money he would have sucked up. Now they are free to
decide whether to spend that billion on another presidential
candidate or to spread it around buying as many congressional seats
as possible (which is what I would have done from the beginning).
Allowing the money to become more focused is bad for us.
The
sociological issue is almost as simple. The longer the primaries
remain competitive without a clear front runner, the more divided the
party is going into the general election. After the convention,
they'll need to spend valuable time uniting the party rather than
running against our candidate. The sooner someone emerges from the
pack as the obvious winner, the sooner they can focus their money and
supporters on defeating our candidate. Bringing the party together is
a major strategic issue. The longer a party remains divided between
viable candidates, the more supporters become dedicated to their
candidates. The more they become dedicated to their candidate, the
more they begin to see other candidates as the enemy. If the enemy
wins, their enthusiasm for supporting them approaches zero. An actual
convention battle would guarantee hundreds of thousands of
supporters, if not millions, either staying home or voting for third
parties in November. In 2008, Obama's greatest challenge wasn't
defeating McCain, it was regaining the support of the Clinton
bitter-enders.
My
conservative/Republican friends seem to understand this calculus far
better than my liberal/Democratic friends do. We look at every
Republican joining the race as mere entertainment. They look at every
Democrat joining the race as bad news for Clinton. We need to learn
from them. If Carson and Fiorina keep up with Trump, that's great. If
Jeb!, Kaisich, and Cruz stay viable, that's even better. If Jindal
and those other guys look viable, that means we've all suffered major
head injuries and need someone to get us to the ER as fast as
possible.
To
summarize: lots of Republicans = good, one Republican = bad.
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