Thursday, November 29, 2007

Don't count Edwards out yet

According to a new Rasmussen poll, it's possible that Edwards might win the Iowa caucuses. It's all due to a quirk in how caucuses work as opposed to primaries. In a caucus multiple votes are held to apportion the delegates. After the first vote, they eliminate the lowest vote getters and vote again until everyone is above a certain threshold (usually 15 percent). While Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are essentially tied for first, Edwards is the overwhelming favorite for second choice. That means Clinton, Obama, and Edwards all pass the first round with about the same number of delegates and Edwards scoops up all of the leftover Biden, Dodd, and Richardson delegates in the second round. I think the Clinton people figured this out a few days ago; they were saying that second place in Iowa was just fine with them. The press frenzy over Edwards winning first place in Iowa would be worth millions in free publicity for him going into the next few primaries.

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